Start with the most important fact about this market: Applejack is a ten-sale-a-year market. With numbers that small, one unusual sale moves every average. So: patterns with the sample size shown, refreshed twice a year, and never ten data points dressed up as statistics.
What a normal year looks like
Roughly ten sales across 185 homes - about a five per cent turnover rate. Typically one of those is in the Woods. Some phases went the full year without a single sale. Practically: if you are waiting for a specific phase, or a specific floor plan, you are not waiting for “the spring market” - you may be waiting for the listing, singular, whenever it decides to appear. It is also why comparables here are scarce and often stale.
How long selling takes
The pattern, not the promise: two to three months is normal, and a meaningful tail of listings sits far longer. This is not a market that punishes patience - it requires it, on both sides. Sellers who need a fast, certain exit need to price for one; buyers who feel rushed by an agent’s urgency should look at how long the average listing here actually sits.
What pricing behaviour shows
Two patterns from the trailing year, sample size visible and both worth respecting:
- Sellers who priced ambitiously got corrected. Across the ten sales, closings averaged roughly 94 per cent of asking, and the weakest outcome was a listing that sat over four months and closed well below its original price. Overpricing here does not fail loudly - it fails slowly, which costs more.
- Asking prices are currently running ahead of where the market has recently cleared - materially so, on the order of a fifth or more depending on how you weigh the mix, and price reductions on active listings back that up. A buyer should not read an Applejack asking price as an appraisal, and a seller should not read a neighbour’s asking price as evidence.
The renovation spread is real money
Within the same twelve months, two units of near-identical footprint in the same phase sold nearly $200,000 apart. Not location, not size - condition and renovation. At n=2 that is an anecdote, but it is the most expensive anecdote in the dataset, and it matches what showings here feel like: the spread between original-condition and renovated is wider than most owners guess. If you are selling, the pre-sale renovation question deserves real analysis, not a rule of thumb - it is exactly the conversation to have with me about your specific unit.
What I will not tell you
- Which phase “performs better.” The samples per phase are a handful of sales at best - far too few to carry a price conclusion. The phases differ in fees, rules and product - buy on those, not on noise.
- Price per square foot. Not until the measurement source is stated, because the listings disagree with the tape measure here.
- Seasonal rental rates. No defensible local dataset exists, and I will not invent one from anecdotes. This site publishes how the seasonal rental market works; if a dataset worth publishing ever materializes, it will appear here with its sample size showing.
The commitment
This page updates every six months, with the data window stated at the top, or it comes down. Every number here carries its sample size and its date - that is the standard, and it will not change.
Brad Macdonald, Broker
The MAC Team · REMAX All-Stars Realty Inc. Brokerage